Well, it always pays to check and recheck. It looks like my original 'weights' on the exposure map file were done incorrectly; the correct method is shown in this thread. Redoing the calculation reduces the total effective area on axis from ~62 cm^2 to more like 46 cm^2, increasing the required flux to get the observed number of counts.
As a side note, this is a major benefit for keeping a log file (mine are all called 'LOG') that shows all the steps necessary to recreate each major step in an analysis. This way, when you find a mistake, it's reasonably easy to go back and redo everything without having to re-derive each step.
So, now I'm re-running mkinstmap (fast) and mkexpmap (very, very slow...)
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